Mula!!

News today that Obama raised $52 million in the month of June. Rumors have been swirling around for a few weeks now (stemming from this WSJ article) that his June total would not surpass $30 mill, which would have led to lots of media bigwigs questioning his decision to opt out of public financing. Back when Obama opted out, about a month ago, and people set the standards for his monthly fundraising absurdly high, some began asking if this was a wise decision. I have a great amount of respect for the Obama campaign, and generally, I trust that the big decisions they make are done with intelligence and only after due process (i.e. internal debating, lots of research into the consequences, factual evidence, etc). So when he decided to opt out of public financing in mid-June, I assumed their fundraising totals for the month so far indicated they'd have no problems raising tons of money. If his purse was feeling light by the second week of June, they could have easily waited a few weeks or months before opting out of the public system. If there was any doubt, they would have waited. The fact that they made the decision when they did made it clear to me that they'd have no problem meeting the sky-high expectations.

Also, people should recognize that today's environment, both politically and economically, is much different than February (when he raised a record $55 million). The economy's worse off and people are much more concerned with their personal economic stability. And the urgency to donate NOW is not even close to what it was in February. So he's going to get less money from small donors than he did before, for all these reasons and more. But that doesn't mean he'll raise less altogether, because he now has access to and the support of (some of) Hillary Clinton's donors. While there are an elite set of HRC bundlers who are just too bitter about the primary race to support Obama, the majority are Democrats, through and through, and will happily throw their financial weight behind the Democratic nominee.

All in all, I would expect Obama to raise around $30-$40 million in July (remember, he's going to be abroad for about a week, meaning he'll only have 3 weeks to attend fundraisers). August is completely up in the air. I could see him pulling in $40 mill, but I could also see him getting some absurd amount like $5 million in one night (the last night of the Democratic convention) and setting a new record with something crazy like $60 mill. And from then on, the race is going to be much more exciting, meaning more people will be eager to get involved, and his small donations will go up again, allowing him to spend less time at fundraisers and more time on the trail (his formula for success during the primary).