Is Obama Winning?

Obama's found himself in a strange conundrum with the mainstream media. Most everyone has rightfully concluded that every meta factor favors the Democratic candidate these days. I won't list them here, but you can look at any poll of party preferences, and you'll see that the Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.

This leads to the current conventional wisdom: Obama should be wiping the floor with McCain right now, surely by the high single digits, if not more. And if he's not, then there has to be something wrong with Obama, something that's leaving voters unsure of him, uncommitted to his candidacy.

So when a new poll comes out showing Obama with a 5 point lead, the media treats this as bad news for Obama. A recent ABC/Washington Post showed Obama with an 8 point lead, but the story they chose to push was voter uneasiness with him as commander in chief, or people unsure of who to trust on Iraq. A month ago, when he was up by 5 points in almost every poll, the story was "Obama Struggles to Pick Up Clinton Supporters," or something along those lines. Well, if this is struggling, then once he manages to shore up these tiny leaks in the Obama cruise ship, he'll win by 15-20 points, which has never happened in modern presidential history.

I can understand distinguishing between a 1% win in the popular vote and a 7% win. A really close election will not help Obama "unite the country." But you don't get an extra room in the White House for winning by 10 points instead of 5. A win is a win.

And be prepared for the inevitable bump McCain will get from his convention, when the media, with a vested interest in making the election seem close, will portray this as a dogfight.